Alstom cuts its outlook for the second time this year — Coradia Max problems in Germany, a €1.5 billion cash outflow now expected, and shares down about 26% at the close
French train maker Alstom cut its full-year outlook on Monday for the second time this year, in preliminary first-half results the board reviewed on Sunday. Execution problems on the Coradia Max regional-train platform in Germany — industrialisation challenges and an extended homologation (approval) timeline, with production paused in the first quarter — drove the first-half adjusted EBIT margin to around −4%, against +6.4% a year earlier, on sales of €9.3 billion (up 3%). For the full year Alstom now expects a margin of around 1% (from around 6.5% before), free cash flow of −€1.5 billion (from a previously guided positive result), car production of around 4,000 (from 4,400–4,500) and low- to mid-single-digit organic sales growth (from around 5%). The board decided to review all options to cut debt by around €2 billion by September 2027 to protect the group's investment-grade rating, and the shares closed in Paris at €11.685, down 26.09% on the day.
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Key points
- Second cut this year (Alstom's own release, read in full): full-year margin to around 1% from around 6.5%; free cash flow to −€1.5 billion from a guided positive result; production to around 4,000 cars from 4,400–4,500.
- The first half behind it: sales €9.3 billion (up 3%), orders €11.0 billion, but an adjusted EBIT margin of around −4% (vs +6.4% a year ago) and free cash flow of −€1,248 million — preliminary, unaudited figures.
- The cause sits with Coradia Max in Germany: technical issues, extra testing and a longer approval timeline, production paused in Q1; Reuters puts the affected German contracts at six, worth about €5 billion combined.
- The response and the market: a board review to cut debt by about €2 billion by September 2027 to protect the investment-grade rating — and a closing share price of €11.685, down 26.09% on the day.
What happened
Alstom is one of the world's largest train makers, and Coradia Max is its double-deck regional platform — the programme that was supposed to drive this year's production growth in Germany, where German states have ordered fleets that all depend on the first train's certification clearing the rest. When that first approval slips, deliveries, milestone payments and margins slip with it across the whole programme, which is the mechanism the release describes: homologation timelines extend, payments move into later years, and margins at completion are revised down.
This is also the second warning under a chief executive who arrived promising execution: Martin Sion took over in April 2026 and cut the outlook within weeks, scrapping a three-year cash-flow target. Monday's release says the new numbers are the product of the project-by-project risk review he ordered — the company's framing is that the bad news is now fully on the table, with normalisation promised from 2027/28. Investors' answer, for now, is in the closing price.
Claim by claim
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What we know / what we don't know yet
What we know
- The company's own published figures and guidance, in full, from its release: the first-half numbers, every guidance line old and new, the deleveraging objective and its September 2027 date.
- The settled market reaction: a €11.685 close, down 26.09% on the day (market data), consistent with Reuters' intraday reporting.
- That the figures are preliminary and unaudited — the release says so itself.
What we don't know yet
- The audited half-year figures, due in the full results — preliminary numbers can move.
- Which assets or measures the €2 billion deleveraging review will actually choose, and whether rating agencies will hold the investment-grade rating in the meantime — no agency action had been reported in the material read.
- When Coradia Max certification will now complete — Reuters reports the first certification is expected only in March 2028, a date Alstom's release does not itself give; it is not carried as a company figure on this page.
Why it matters
Alstom builds the regional trains much of Europe runs on, and this warning says the flagship German programme behind its growth is loss-making, its cash is flowing out instead of in, and its balance sheet now needs a €2 billion repair to keep its credit rating. For passengers and the German states waiting on those trains, the same numbers mean later deliveries; for investors, a stock that has lost more than half its value this year.
Background
Show the background timeline (5)
Martin Sion becomes chief executive; within weeks Alstom scraps its three-year free-cash-flow target and cuts its margin outlook, blaming delays and execution issues on major rolling-stock contracts (Reuters).
Coradia Max production is paused to resolve identified technical issues and minimise later retrofit work (Alstom).
Half-year end: net debt €1.1 billion (from €0.4 billion at 31 March); first-half free cash flow −€1,248 million (Alstom).
The board reviews the preliminary results; Alstom signs a new €2.0 billion revolving credit facility (Alstom).
The second outlook cut is released before the Paris open; the shares fall 30% in early trading and close at €11.685, down 26.09% (Reuters; market data).
Update history
No silent edits. Every change is written here, with its time.
- Latest
Story published (queue #926). Basis: Alstom's own preliminary H1 2026/27 release read in full in this pass; Reuters for the market reaction and the April first cut; the closing share price (€11.685, −26.09%) from 2 November market data, in place of the day's moving intraday figures.