Global fossil-fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, driven by the Iran war's oil shock and growing renewables
Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026 to 38.2 billion tonnes, the Global Carbon Project's annual budget says — the first fall after a record high in 2025. Emissions from oil are projected to drop 1.9%, which the researchers say is mainly a short-term response to the energy shock from the Iran conflict and the disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while solar, wind and electric vehicles meet two-thirds of the growth in energy demand. The authors warn the fall is not yet a durable peak: total CO2 emissions, including land-use change, are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tonnes.
Key points
- Fossil CO2 is projected at 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, down 0.4% — oil −1.9%, gas −0.3%, coal +0.6%.
- The authors name the Iran conflict's oil-supply shock as the main driver, and call the fall a short-term blip, not a peak.
- Renewables and EVs meet two-thirds of new energy demand — but total CO2 still rises to 43.3 billion tonnes.
What happened
The Global Carbon Budget, produced by more than 140 scientists and published in Earth System Science Data, is the annual reference count of the world's carbon emissions. The 2026 edition was presented at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye.
Fossil emissions grew 1.2% in 2025 to a record high, and have risen about 0.8% a year on average since 2019 — which is why the authors distinguish this year's projected fall from a structural peak.
What we know / what we don't know yet
What we know
- The projections and the authors' own reading of them, from the Global Carbon Project's release.
What we don't know yet
- Whether 2026 becomes a true peak — the authors say that depends on clean-energy deployment accelerating and on what happens when oil supplies normalise.
Claim by claim
Show all claims (4)
Why this label: Every figure is the Global Carbon Project's own release of its 2026 budget, read in full. All are projections for the year, and are carried as projections.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The driver and Andrew's characterisation are the project's own release and his comments reported by Gizmodo. They are the authors' assessment, carried as such.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The two-thirds figure, China's share and Friedlingstein's words are the project's own release, read in full.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The totals, the land-use drivers, the remaining budget and the concentration are the project's own release. The 150-billion-tonne figure is the release's; one accompanying analysis cites 165 billion tonnes on a different accounting, so the release's headline figure is the one carried.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why it matters
The world's fossil emissions bending down, even slightly, is rare outside a crisis. The budget's own verdict is that this dip owes more to a war closing an oil chokepoint than to the energy transition — the test is whether the fall survives the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
Background
Global fossil CO2 emissions rise 1.2% to a record high.
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects a 0.4% fall in fossil CO2 for 2026, presented at COP31 in Antalya.
Update history
No silent edits. Every change is written here, with its time.
- Latest
Published — the projections are the Global Carbon Project's own annual budget figures.