Nigeria's rice question: production is up on paper, yet imports keep rising
Nigerian data say paddy production rose from about four million tonnes in 2015 to seven million in 2022. But the US Department of Agriculture expects rice production to fall and imports to rise to 2.8 million tonnes in 2025/26, which sits awkwardly beside claims of self-sufficiency.
Key points
- NBS-based reporting: paddy rose from about 4 million tonnes in 2015 to 7 million in 2022.
- USDA: production to fall 5 percent to 7.9 million tonnes in 2025/26.
- USDA: imports to rise 16 percent to 2.8 million tonnes in the same year.
- NBS price watch: local rice averaged N1,913.78 per kg in October 2025, slightly down on a year earlier.
What happened
Rice is Nigeria's most politically sensitive food. Governments have promised self-sufficiency for a decade, restricted imports, closed borders and lent heavily to rice farmers through the Anchor Borrowers Programme, which was later suspended amid fraud allegations and unpaid loans.
The argument is really about measurement. Paddy (unmilled rice), milled rice and consumption are different numbers, and different sources count them differently - and much imported rice arrives informally through neighbouring countries, which official trade figures can miss.
Claim by claim
Why this label: Reported by BusinessDay from NBS data. Note this is paddy, not milled rice, so it cannot be compared directly with milled-rice import figures.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimate, published March 2025. It is a forecast, clearly dated, not a final count.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: Same USDA estimate, which gives favourable import pricing compared with domestic paddy as the reason.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The production-rise figures and the import-rise figures cannot both support self-sufficiency at the same time. USDA expects imports to grow, and it notes informal imports of cheaper rice from India and Thailand entering through neighbouring countries - trade that is hard to count exactly.
On the ladder: credible sources conflict, so we show both workings. One side's own statement is that side's position — never proof.
Why this label: From the NBS Selected Food Price Watch, as reported. A small fall after a long period of high prices is not the same as rice becoming cheap.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
What we know / what we don't know yet
What we know
- Production and import figures come from different bodies using different definitions.
- USDA expects both falling production and rising imports in 2025/26.
- The NBS price watch gives a specific, dated retail price for local rice.
What we don't know yet
- The true volume of informal rice imports through neighbouring countries, which no source we opened could count precisely.
- A single agreed figure for how much milled rice Nigeria actually produces and eats in a year.
Why it matters
Rice prices decide how far a Nigerian salary stretches. If production claims are too rosy, policy leans the wrong way - borders, loans and import rules all get set on numbers that may not describe what is in the market. Shoppers feel the gap at the stall, whatever the statistics say.
Update history
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