Brent crude falls below $90 for the first time since August as Trump says the Iran war could end 'fairly soon'
Brent crude fell nearly 3% to $89.66 a barrel on Tuesday morning, its lowest since 31 August, after President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end 'fairly soon' and that new US strikes were not necessary at this point. The drop below $90 — the first since August — followed a fall of nearly 6% on Monday, and stock markets climbed as investors priced in a possible end to the eight-month war. No ceasefire or agreement has been announced, and Iran's foreign minister restated Tehran's conditions on Tuesday.
Key points
- Brent crude fell nearly 3% to $89.66 on Tuesday morning — below $90 for the first time since August, after a near-6% fall on Monday.
- President Trump said the war could end 'fairly soon' and new strikes were not necessary at this point, while keeping the threat of force in place.
- Shares climbed as oil fell: the Stoxx 600 neared a record high, and airline shares rose while BP and Shell fell.
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- No ceasefire or agreement has been announced, and Iran restated its conditions on Tuesday.
What happened
Oil has been the war's price tag since February: Brent began the year near $60 a barrel and climbed above $117 in late October as strikes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz squeezed supply.
The two-day slide follows a week of signals that Washington may not strike again: the president met Qatar's prime minister at the White House on Monday, and crude flows from the Gulf have been recovering toward pre-war levels, even as fuel and gas supplies remain tighter.
What we know / what we don't know yet
What we know
- That Brent traded below $90 on Tuesday morning for the first time since August, and the size of the two-day fall.
- That the president has said publicly the war could end fairly soon and that new strikes are not necessary at this point.
What we don't know yet
- Whether the price holds below $90 — prices move through the day, and October's US inflation figures were due later on Tuesday.
- Whether any US–Iran agreement follows the president's words — none has been announced, and Iran's conditions remain on the table.
- Whether the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens to normal traffic, and when.
Claim by claim
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Why this label: The $89.66 figure and the near-6% Monday fall are The Guardian's market report, read in full; CNBC and OilPrice.com report the same break below $90 in the same terms (front-month Brent at $89.70 in early European trade), and the WTI figure is CNBC's as carried in market summaries. Figures are Tuesday morning's, and prices move through the day.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The president's words are his own, made on the record at the White House and reported in the same terms by The Guardian and CNBC. They are verified as what he said; whether the war ends, and on what terms, is a separate question, and no agreement has been announced.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The index and share moves are The Guardian's Tuesday market report, read in full.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The peak and the percentage are the analyst's figures as reported by OilPrice.com, carried as his assessment, not as a market statistic of record.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: No agreement appears in any of the reporting read this run, and Iran's restated position is Foreign Minister Araghchi's own statement to Iran's IRNA agency, reported by Arab News; it is carried in full on Vozia's Iran talks story.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why it matters
Every fall in the oil price eases fuel and inflation pressure worldwide, and a sustained move below $90 would mark the market's judgement that the Iran war's supply shock is ending. That judgement is running ahead of the diplomacy: prices have moved on a president's words, not on a signed agreement, so they can move back just as fast.
Background
Show the background timeline (4)
The United States and Israel launch their war on Iran; Brent, near $60 at the start of the year, climbs steeply as the Strait of Hormuz closes.
Brent peaks above $117 a barrel.
Brent falls nearly 6% as the president meets Qatar's prime minister and speaks of momentum toward ending the conflict.
Brent falls below $90 for the first time since August, touching about $89.20 in the morning.
Update history
No silent edits. Every change is written here, with its time.
- Latest
Published — Brent's fall below $90 and the president's remarks are confirmed by the market reports and White House reporting cited. Prices move through the day.