Federal Reserve holds its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4.00% — two officials wanted another increase
The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday 28 October 2026 that its Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, leaving September's increase in place. The statement was approved by a 10-to-2 vote: Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack voted against, preferring to raise the range by a quarter of a percentage point. The Committee said economic activity is expanding at a strong pace and inflation remains elevated, and that the accumulation of more information will help it determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to its 2 percent goal.
Key points
- The Federal Reserve maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday 28 October 2026, per the FOMC's own statement — September's increase stays in place.
- The statement was approved 10-2: Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point rise at this meeting.
- The Committee says activity is expanding at a strong pace and inflation remains elevated, and that more information will help it set the stance for a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal.
- The next scheduled FOMC meeting is 8-9 December 2026, per the Federal Reserve's own calendar.
What happened
The decision was released at 2:00 p.m. EDT at the end of the FOMC's two-day 27-28 October meeting, less than a week before the 3 November US midterm elections. Earlier Vozia scans on 28 October had the decision listed as still ahead; this brief is published now that the Federal Reserve's own statement has been read directly in full.
It follows the Bank of Canada's decision earlier on Wednesday to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% — the two North American central banks moved in opposite directions on the same day, the Fed pausing after September's increase while Canada resumed raising.
Claim by claim
Why this label: From the Federal Reserve's own FOMC statement of 28 October 2026, read in full for this brief — the central bank's account of its own decision. The Wall Street Journal and the New York Post report the same decision: a hold at 3.75% to 4%, approved 10-2.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The dissenters and what they preferred are stated in the Fed's own statement, read in full for this brief. The Wall Street Journal identifies Cook as a Fed governor and Hammack as president of the Cleveland Fed, and reports the same dissent in favour of a quarter-point increase.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The assessment and the forward wording are the FOMC statement's own, read in full for this brief — reported here as the Committee's stated assessment, not as Vozia's finding.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Show all claims (1 more)
Why this label: The September increase to this same range is from the Federal Reserve's own record of the 16 September 2026 meeting. The market-expectation points are Reuters' pre-decision reporting, labelled as such, and the December meeting dates are from the Federal Reserve's own FOMC meeting calendar.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
What we know / what we don't know yet
What we know
- The decision itself, the unchanged rate range, the 10-2 vote and the two dissenters, and the Committee's stated assessment and forward wording — all from the Federal Reserve's own statement, cross-checked against the Wall Street Journal.
What we don't know yet
- Whether the Committee raises the rate at its 8-9 December meeting — the statement says only that more information will help it determine the appropriate stance, and market expectations of a December increase are expectations, not a decision.
- What Chair Kevin Warsh says at his post-decision press conference, scheduled for 2:30 p.m. EDT — it had not been read for this brief at publication.
Why it matters
The federal funds rate sets the floor under borrowing costs across the US economy and, through the dollar, around the world. A hold that two members opposed in favour of another rise — a month after the Fed's first increase since 2023 — shows a committee still worried that inflation will not return to 2% on time, with the December meeting now the next decision point.
Update history
No silent edits. Every change is written here, with its time.
- Latest
Story published as a confirmed brief, based on the Federal Reserve's own FOMC statement of 28 October 2026, read in full, cross-checked against the Wall Street Journal. The decision had been flagged as FAST-lane in earlier scans on 28 October while it was still listed as ahead.