Iran's oil output fell to 1.86 million barrels a day in October, below its pre-war refinery needs, IEA figures show
Iran produced 1.86 million barrels of crude a day in October, down 46 per cent from pre-war levels, the International Energy Agency estimated — below the more than 1.873 million barrels a day its refineries consumed in 2024–25, according to Iranian Oil Ministry data. Crude loadings stopped in mid-August under the US naval blockade, Kpler data show, while other Gulf producers' output recovered.
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Key points
- The IEA put Iran's October crude output at 1.86 million barrels a day — down 46 per cent from pre-war levels.
- That is below the more than 1.873 million barrels a day Iran's refineries consumed in 2024–25, on Oil Ministry data.
- Kpler says crude loadings stopped in mid-August under the blockade; product loadings continue at reduced levels.
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- Other Gulf producers recovered in October — OPEC plus the UAE produced 27.16 million barrels a day combined.
What happened
Iran's production has fallen through the war and the US naval blockade that followed it: exports halted, floating storage ran down, and output has been cut back toward what the domestic system can absorb. October's IEA estimate is the first that puts production below even the pre-war level of the country's own refinery consumption.
The pressure point is products, not only crude. With naphtha and fuel oil loadings sharply down, analysts at Kpler warn refinery units may have to shut in part if surplus products cannot be sold or absorbed at home.
What we know / what we don't know yet
What we know
- The IEA's October estimate, the Oil Ministry's 2024–25 refinery consumption figure, and Kpler's loadings data are all published figures carried with their sources.
- Other Gulf producers' combined output rose in October on OPEC figures.
What we don't know yet
- Iran's actual current refinery demand — new units have been added, and war damage may have lowered it below the 2024–25 figure.
- Whether any refinery units have in fact shut in part, as Kpler's analyst warned they may.
- Tehran's own public response to the IEA figures.
Claim by claim
Show all claims (5)
Why this label: The figure is the IEA's monthly-report estimate as reported by Iran International; a Bloomberg production survey put October output at about 1.9 million barrels a day, in the same range.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The ministry's own consumption figure, in a report reviewed by Iran International; the article notes new processing units have since been added while war damage may have changed actual demand.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: Kpler's tracking, reported to Iran International; Kpler separately recorded no Iranian crude exports at all in September.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: Falakshahi's figures and warning are his on-record assessment to Iran International on 13 November.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The comparison is from OPEC's figures as reported in the same analysis: the region's output recovered as Iran's fell.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why it matters
Oil income funds a large share of Iran's state budget. Production below the level its own refineries used before the war is a measure of how far the blockade and war damage have cut into the economy — at the same time as rival Gulf producers recover the output Iran has lost.
Background
Iranian crude oil loadings stop, according to Kpler.
Kpler records no Iranian crude exports at all in the month.
The IEA estimates Iran's production at 1.86 million barrels a day, down 46 per cent from pre-war levels.
Update history
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Published in Checking state — the production and consumption figures are published estimates carried with their sources, and checking continues.