Iran warns of gas shortages this winter as war damage cuts processing capacity
Iran's government has warned of worsening gas shortages this winter because of damage to processing plants in the war with the United States, and says supply cuts are possible across the country, including Tehran, if consumption stays high. The government forecasts a supply shortfall of 430 million cubic metres this year, up from about 300 million in previous years, and the national gas company says 11 of Iran's 31 provinces could face supply difficulties.
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Key points
- The government forecasts a gas supply shortfall of 430 million cubic metres this year, up from about 300 million in previous years.
- Four processing plants were damaged early in the war, cutting capacity by 230 million cubic metres; about 100 million has been restored.
- Eleven of Iran's 31 provinces could face supply difficulties this winter, the national gas company warns.
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- Officials are asking Iranians to cut gas use by 10 percent, and warn prices could rise if consumption stays excessive.
What happened
Iran holds part of the world's biggest natural gas field, but it has struggled before to meet winter demand because of outdated equipment, a problem worsened by international sanctions; it faced gas shortages and power cuts even before the conflict that began with a US and Israeli air campaign on 28 February. The country is now also subject to a US blockade of its ports.
The warning is the government's own: the damage figures come from the national gas company's managing director, the shortfall forecast from its spokesperson, and the conservation appeal from the parliament speaker — officials preparing the public for cuts rather than outside estimates of the damage.
What we know / what we don't know yet
What we know
- The government's forecast: a 430 million cubic metre shortfall this year, against about 300 million in previous years.
- Four processing plants were damaged, cutting capacity by 230 million cubic metres, with about 100 million restored so far.
- Eleven provinces could face supply difficulties, with Mazandaran, Golestan and North Khorasan named most vulnerable.
What we don't know yet
- Whether cuts will actually be imposed, and how severe they will be — the government says they depend on consumption.
- When the remaining damaged capacity will be restored.
- Whether gas prices will rise, and by how much — the first vice president raised the possibility, but no increase has been announced.
Claim by claim
Show all claims (4)
Why this label: Mohajerani's own words and forecast, reported by Reuters. The shortfall figure is carried exactly as she gave it; the report does not state a daily rate for it.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: Tavakoli is the head of the company that runs the network; his damage and restoration figures are reported by Reuters.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The company's own warning and its named provinces, reported by Reuters.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: Both are the officials' own public statements, reported by Reuters; the price point is Aref's warning, not an announced increase.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why it matters
Gas heats Iranian homes through the winter, so a shortfall of this size means either cuts or price rises reaching most households, including in the capital. It is also a measure of the war's lasting effect inside Iran: processing capacity lost in the conflict's first phase has still not been fully restored months later.
Background
Show the background timeline (4)
The conflict begins with a US and Israeli air campaign against Iran; gas processing plants are damaged in its first phase.
The National Iranian Gas Company warns that 11 of 31 provinces could face supply difficulties this winter.
Parliament Speaker Qalibaf calls on Iranians to cut gas use by 10 percent.
Government spokesperson Mohajerani warns of possible gas cuts across the country, including Tehran, and gives the 430 million cubic metre shortfall forecast.
Update history
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Published in Checking state — the officials' warning and figures are confirmed, and whether cuts will be imposed this winter is not yet known.