US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics says — and there is no annual inflation rate this month
US consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after rising 0.6% in September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday, with shelter accounting for over thirty percent of the monthly increase and prices excluding food and energy up 0.3% for a third straight month. Both readings were above economists' forecasts. The bureau published no 12-month inflation rate for October, because it collected no survey data in October 2025 during that year's lapse in appropriations.
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Key points
- Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October after +0.6% in September; core prices rose 0.3% for a third straight month.
- Shelter rose 0.3% and drove over thirty percent of the monthly increase; food rose 0.5% and energy 0.7%.
- Both readings beat forecasts (0.3% headline, 0.2% core in a Reuters poll of economists).
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- There is no official annual rate for October: the bureau never collected October 2025 prices, so the 12-month change cannot be calculated.
What happened
The October report is the last inflation reading the Federal Reserve will receive before its 8–9 December meeting: the November figures are not due until 10 December, the day after that meeting ends. A core reading at 0.3% for a third month keeps price pressure above the pace the central bank has said it wants to see.
The missing annual rate is a data gap, not a change of method: because the October 2025 survey never happened during that year's funding lapse, the bureau has no base month against which to measure a year of price change for most series.
What we know / what we don't know yet
What we know
- The bureau's October figures: all items +0.4%, core +0.3%, shelter +0.3%, food +0.5%, energy +0.7%.
- That no 12-month headline or core rate exists for October, because October 2025 data was never collected.
What we don't know yet
- How the Federal Reserve will read the report at its 8–9 December meeting — no decision has been announced.
- The November figures, due on 10 December, after the Fed meeting ends.
Claim by claim
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Why this label: The bureau's own release (USDL-26-1685), read in full. Low-risk official figures published against the official source itself.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: All component figures are from the bureau's release and its Table A, read in full.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The forecasts are the Reuters poll as reported with the release; the market reaction was reported in Associated Press summaries on Tuesday. The forecasts are expectations, not BLS figures.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why this label: The bureau's own explanation, stated in the release, read in full. Any October annual inflation rate quoted elsewhere for the headline index is not a figure the bureau published.
On the ladder: a claim earns Verified from primary evidence, or from two independent sources that do not copy each other.
Why it matters
Inflation is the number that decides US interest rates, and through them borrowing costs far beyond the United States. A hotter-than-expected October, arriving with no annual rate to judge it against and no further report before the Federal Reserve meets in December, leaves policymakers and markets reading a single monthly figure with unusual weight.
Background
A lapse in federal appropriations stops the bureau collecting October 2025 price data; that month's indexes are never built for most series.
Consumer prices rise 0.6% in the month, with energy up 5.2%.
The bureau releases the October figures: +0.4% headline, +0.3% core, and no annual rate.
Update history
No silent edits. Every change is written here, with its time.
- Latest
Published in Checking state — the bureau's figures are on the record, and the Federal Reserve's response at its December meeting is still to come.